Prisma statistics: Rising coffee prices are making consumers increasingly price-conscious
Estonians are among the biggest coffee drinkers in the world. According to Statistics Estonia, in 2023 each person in Estonia consumed an average of 593 cups of coffee per year, placing Estonia among the top ten countries globally. In recent years, however, coffee prices have risen sharply — by nearly a third last year — which means coffee lovers are paying increasing attention to price and value for money when making purchasing decisions.
The Estonian coffee drinker is clearly price-sensitive, and our sales statistics show that people consider their choices very carefully when buying coffee. For example, in April, lower-priced coffee products accounted for 44% of unit sales and 54% of turnover in the entire coffee segment,” commented Natalja Saveljeva, Prisma’s Category Manager for Hot Beverages. “The average consumer no longer buys only their favourite brand, but is increasingly looking for a product that combines familiar quality with a reasonable price.”
According to Prisma, Estonians’ preferred coffee brands continue to be mainly well-known major names. “Paulig is the clear favourite, followed by Nescafé and Jacobs,” Saveljeva noted. Although the major brands continue to dominate the market, consumers are increasingly also choosing products from Estonian coffee producers and premium brands. In recent years, coffee beans from the Estonian brand Caffebo, for example, have gained popularity.
Saveljeva also highlighted the growing popularity of coffee beans and the increasing demand for speciality coffees as notable trends. “As bean-to-cup coffee machines for home use have become more affordable and widespread, we can see the market share of coffee beans growing. Capsule coffee machines have also found their way into many households, which supports capsule sales,” she said. “The broader trend continues to be the growth of the speciality and premium coffee segment. While retail chains are able to meet part of this demand, a noticeable share of sales still comes from roasteries, speciality shops and online stores, given how fragmented this market is and how many producers operate in it.”
Price sensitivity guides choices
While the biggest coffee enthusiasts choose products from the shelf primarily according to their taste preferences, price has become increasingly important for the average consumer. Coffee prices began rising rapidly at the end of 2023, mainly due to droughts in countries of origin, growing international demand and supply chain problems. Prices continued to rise until the end of last year and began stabilising on the global market this year, but price decreases are slow to reach consumers.
“It is clear that customers have become more price-sensitive in recent years. This is reflected above all in the fact that purchasing decisions are increasingly made by comparing the full price range, and more affordable private-label products are appearing more often in many consumers’ shopping baskets,” Saveljeva explained.
In Prisma’s product range, the Coop, Herkku and Änglamark brands have seen the strongest sales success, while sales of the very affordable Xtra brand’s ground coffee have grown especially quickly. “The strength of private-label brands lies in the fact that they allow consumers to be offered good value for money even in a situation where global market prices fluctuate and pressure on final prices remains high,” the category manager added.
Price sensitivity is also illustrated by declining brand loyalty. Although the ranking of preferred brands has not changed in recent years, Saveljeva noted that customers looking for a better price are increasingly willing to try new producers and brands. “A consumer with clear preferences often remains loyal to their favourite brand, but pays closer attention to its price level than before. A coffee drinker with less fixed preferences, however, tends to look at the full shelf selection and choose, from among familiar brands, a product that is reasonably priced and matches their taste preferences,” she said.
According to forecasts, the Estonian coffee market will continue to grow in the coming years, while being most strongly influenced by global market prices and, to some extent, seasonality. Coffee purchases are highest in autumn and winter, while in summer, sales statistics show a slight decline in coffee consumption.
“Estonians are and will remain coffee fans — we are simply becoming consumers who increasingly prioritise good value for money,” Saveljeva said.